Welcome to the Dice Game Calculator

The goal is to give you an impression of your chances to reach your target and help you make a better decision, whether you want to go on rolling the dice for gems or not.

Disclaimer

This calculator cannot predict the future. Even if the calculator tells you that your chances are 95%, you might still be among the unlucky 5%. That’s part of game theory and decision-making under uncertainty.

Also, while the dice is assumed to be fair (equal chance for 1–6), this may not be true. Bugs or incorrect assumptions may affect the results. So do not take the results as a guarantee.

Expected costs before your first roll

Percentage of players	Costs (Gems)
Luckiest 1%	1650
Luckiest 10%	3600
Median 50%	6900
Unluckiest 10%	10800
Unluckiest 1%	14400

As you can see, costs vary extremely. 10k gems should be enough in most cases. But there’s no guarantee!

The expected rolls needed to reach 4500 is somewhere between 150 and 215, most likely around 180. A golden dice would be worth roughly 8 silver dice. So it saves you 1200gems.

Anyway I wish you best of luck in the event.

Help

Input Fields

Field	Description
Your target	How much event currency do you plan to reach? 4500 would be the default to get the main price.
Position	Your position on the board. The start/finish tile is counted as position 0. Click on the info button next to the field to get the position number for each tile.
Event currency	The event currency you have already collected. Excluding event currency that is still in the treasury.
Gems	The number of gems you currently have. This will help to give you a better impression of your chances to reach your target.
Silver dice	The silver dice you still can use. This includes the dice you can still collect via quests. Silver dice that you can earn after the 25th and 50th roll are excluded! These will automatically be added according to your rolls so far (see point “rolls so far”). Also silver dice in treasury are excluded here and will be asked for later. Please collect silver dice from step 25 and 50 if not already done.
Golden dice	Golden dice you still can use. The golden dice you can get after roll 75 and 100 are added automatically. Please collect golden dice from step 75 and 100 if you are passed these steps.
Rolls so far	How many rolls did you do so far?
Event currency in treasury	Event currency you have collected on your current unfinished lap. Take a close look into the treasury in the center of the board.
Gems in treasury	Gems you have collected on your current unfinished lap. Take a close look into the treasury in the center of the board.
Silver dice in treasury	Silver dice you have collected on your current unfinished lap. Take a close look into the treasury in the center of the board.
Golden dice in treasury	Golden dice you have collected on your current unfinished lap. Take a close look into the treasury in the center of the board.
Arrow direction	In order to know which path the hero is on or chooses next, the direction of the arrow is needed.

How to read the Results

Metric	Value	Help
Completion rate	9%	The number of runs in percent, where your initial gems given in the input would be enough to reach your target.
Average costs	7050	The amount of gems needed on average to reach the target (for example 4500 event currency). The average is not to mix with the median.
Median costs	6900	The amount of gems needed to reach the target where 50% of players pay less or same and 50% pay more or same.
Luckiest 1%	1650	1% of players will only pay a maximum of 1650 gems to reach the target.
Luckiest 10%	3600	10% of players will pay a maximum of 3600 gems to reach the target.
10% of players pay more than	10800	10% of players will pay 10800 gems or more to reach the target. So 90% of players pay less or equal to 10800 gems.
1% of players pay more than	14400	1% of player will pay 14400 or more gems to reach the target. 99% of players pay less or equal to 14400.

Important Notes

If you only have 56 free silver dice, you’ll need to buy 8 more (8 × 150 = 1200 gems).

Even a million gems could theoretically be needed. Use the calculator to assess your situation and decide whether to continue after your free rolls.

How the Logic Works

Silver dice are used until the target is reached. If you run out, gems are used to buy more. Golden dice are used strategically to reach key tiles. If you can’t afford a silver dice, the run is marked as failed, but the simulation continues to calculate total costs.

Reminder

This tool is meant to help you make better and informed decisions. It cannot guarantee outcomes. If you’re unsure how to use it, feel free to reach out on Discord.

Kind regards,
Spiderpig (LootGoblins)